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  • Published:July 2, 2014
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Buoyweather is the official forecaster of the Gulf Cup. Below is the forecast update sent to contest organizers on July 2, 2013.

BRIEF OVERVIEW

A weak front will impact the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday July 4. Weak high-pressure from the Atlantic will meanwhile dominant much of the middle Gulf of Mexico, while weak troughing lingers in the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche. Overall this pattern is expected to produce fairly light winds/low seas for much of the Gulf for the event with only a couple of exceptions.

DETAILED ANALYSIS:

A slow moving front is expected to be over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. While there are some discrepancies in the placement of this front among the various computer models, most solutions have it within 100nm either side of a Florida Big Bend to Galveston, Texas line on Friday morning. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible near this front.

For winds, light to moderate (5-15kt) N/NE winds are expected over the Northern Gulf waters north of the front, with the strongest winds located east of far SE Louisiana. The front is expected to weaken through the day, with lighter and more variable winds expected for the afternoon. Onshore sea breezes are likely near the coast up to 12kts by late in the day. See point forecasts on Buoyweather.com for more info.
Overall this pattern is expected to produce fairly light winds/low seas for much of the Gulf for the event with only a couple of exceptions.
Mark Willis


South of the front, light and highly variable winds (at or below 10kts) are expected over much of the Gulf waters between 23N and 28N, this is in response to a weak ridge of high pressure in this region.

Elsewhere, up to 20kt E/NE winds are possible near the Bay of Campeche. Seas are forecast to be mostly in the small 1-2' variety for much of the Gulf outside of the Bay of Campeche, where up to 3ft seas are forecast. Again, please see Buoyweather.com point forecasts for details in the areas you plan on fishing.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Tropical Storm Arthur is very near Hurricane strength east of North Florida as of 5pm on Wednesday July 2. Arthur is expected to move N/NE away from the region with no impact on the Gulf of Mexico for the July 4 Gulf Cup. Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet.

Prepared by Mark Willis and the Buoyweather/FishTrack Forecast Team

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